October 2025

Key insight: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson described a delicate balancing act, supporting moderate rate cuts to protect jobs while keeping long-term inflation under control. Supporting data: GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first half of 2025, and tariffs are nudging prices higher as long-term expectations remain anchored. Forward look: Jefferson emphasized durable inflation […]

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Key Insight: Payroll firm ADP showed that employers lost 32,000 jobs in September, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release its scheduled jobs report Friday because of the federal government shutdown. Forward look: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September as a “risk management” move. The absence of a key