Last week, housing inventory levels decreased noticeably, while our weekly pending sales showed a notable increase compared to the same period last year. Was the decrease in inventory primarily due to the seasonal decline in housing stock, or did the increase in demand contribute to lowering the inventory unmbers? Let’s dive into this weekend’s tracker […]
Housing inventory falls as demand picks up Read More »
The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year. I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage
Mortgage spreads hit lowest level in years, keeping rates near 6% Read More »
We had a nice pop in our weekly pending home sales last week, and with mortgage rates near 2025 lows we could ask: Is housing breaking out? Not exactly. One of the themes I really stressed this year is that weekly data can be volatile around holiday weekends. So we always look at the two
Weekly home sales look stronger than normal, but there’s a catch Read More »
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced Sunday that it expects total single-family mortgage origination volume to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from $2.0 trillion expected in 2025. Speaking at its 2025 Annual Convention and Expo, Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development; Joel Kan, vice president, deputy chief
MBA forecasts $2.2T mortgage origination in 2026 Read More »
Mortgage applications for new homes dipped in September from the previous month but remained higher than last year’s levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s Builder Application Survey released Thursday. The data offers a snapshot of housing demand at a time when market watchers are seeking clues about new-home sales amid the federal government
New-home mortgage applications dip in September Read More »
Housing inventory at one point this year showed 33% year-over-year growth, but that growth has since slowed to 17%, and we might already have seen the seasonal peak in inventory for the year in the first week of August. I didn’t believe we were witnessing the peak in August and I have been looking for
Did housing inventory peak in August this year? Read More »
Growth in total active inventory has been my favorite story for housing in 2025, but that inventory growth has slowed recently, and today’s Housing Market Tracker will focus on why. Inventory growth was running at 33% year over year a few months ago, but it dropped to 17.66% last week. Let’s find out what happened.
Why has housing inventory growth slowed? Read More »
Mortgage spreads are the hero of housing in 2025, quietly helping housing demand pick up even when nobody else notices. What are mortgage spreads? In the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates since 1971, the mortgage spread is the distance between them — the key variable keeping them close or distant.
Mortgage spreads are the hero of the 2025 housing market Read More »
Existing home sales have shown year-over-year growth for two consecutive months, as mortgage rates have remained below 6.64% for the same period. However, let’s remember that the bar is very low for yearly growth. In fact, for many months, I’ve said that the reports coming out from June to October — which will be reported
Existing home sales show year-over-year growth again Read More »
Following another decline in mortgage rates, mortgage applications increased 0.6% from one week earlier, per data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Sept. 19, 2025. Without adjusting for seasonality, the index increased 0.1% compared with the previous week. A key driver of applications was the refinance share
Mortgage applications increase as rates fall to 12-month low Read More »