The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year. I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage […]
Mortgage spreads hit lowest level in years, keeping rates near 6% Read More »
We had a nice pop in our weekly pending home sales last week, and with mortgage rates near 2025 lows we could ask: Is housing breaking out? Not exactly. One of the themes I really stressed this year is that weekly data can be volatile around holiday weekends. So we always look at the two
Weekly home sales look stronger than normal, but there’s a catch Read More »
Housing demand started to pick up more than three months ago and has stabilized the housing market. One reason many people are behind the curve on housing data is that they rely on outdated reports that are three to six months old. This is why it’s very critical to track weekly live fresh housing data
Housing demand now reflects a positive trend Read More »
The story of the 2025 housing market hasn’t been as positive as many industry professionals would like, but the last three months of the year could serve as a warm blanket to an otherwise chilly environment. On Tuesday, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that 30-year conforming loan rates averaged 6.38%, unchanged from a week ago.
Mortgage rates steady amid government shutdown Read More »
Housing inventory at one point this year showed 33% year-over-year growth, but that growth has since slowed to 17%, and we might already have seen the seasonal peak in inventory for the year in the first week of August. I didn’t believe we were witnessing the peak in August and I have been looking for
Did housing inventory peak in August this year? Read More »
Growth in total active inventory has been my favorite story for housing in 2025, but that inventory growth has slowed recently, and today’s Housing Market Tracker will focus on why. Inventory growth was running at 33% year over year a few months ago, but it dropped to 17.66% last week. Let’s find out what happened.
Why has housing inventory growth slowed? Read More »
Mortgage spreads are the hero of housing in 2025, quietly helping housing demand pick up even when nobody else notices. What are mortgage spreads? In the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates since 1971, the mortgage spread is the distance between them — the key variable keeping them close or distant.
Mortgage spreads are the hero of the 2025 housing market Read More »
Mortgage rates fell to almost 6% just before the Fed announcement on rate cuts, then rose slightly to close out the week. Have lower mortgage rates already changed the housing market? Yes. Housing data started to change in our weekly Housing Market Tracker in mid-June and I’m writing this weekend’s tracker a bit differently to
Have lower mortgage rates already changed the housing market? Read More »
Now that jobs week is over, we are all left with one truth: it really is about the labor market over inflation data when it comes to mortgage rates, which hit a fresh year-to-date low after Friday’s terrible jobs numbers. The question now is whether mortgage rates can drop below 6% and stay there with
Can mortgage rates get below 6% with this Federal Reserve? Read More »
Have lower mortgage rates altered the dynamics of the housing market based on our data? Now that August has come to an end, it’s clear that they have — and the results have surprised me. In recent years, it has typically taken sustained mortgage rates of around 6% to impact housing data. However, I noticed
Lower mortgage rates pushed inventory lower in August Read More »